CUP YTD
77-65 +2.58 units (Match-Ups)
33-28 +7.47 units (Props)
09-60 +0.31 units (Outrights)
Total: +10.36 units
Have a lot of ground to make up after having my ass handed to me at Bristol.
Really liked Edwards this weekend until he broke his foot and while he did ok in the Nationwide race just too much of a question mark to back him today.
Played these:
Match-Ups
2.00 units Casey Mears (-120) over Elliott Sadler (@thegreek)
A little unsettling having Mears as my top play but can't overlook the improvement the past month by his team as well as RCR as a whole. Mears has finished 13th, 6th and 15th the last 3 races and has an avg. finish of 14.25 the last 4 at AMS.
If he can salvage a Top 20 tonight (and I think he is capable of a lot more than that) that might be all he needs to beat Sadler.
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+120) over Greg Biffle (@5dimes)
One of Kenseth's better tracks. Has 11 Top 10's in 19 starts, and knows he must keep pace to stay in the Chase. Qualified 15th and usually when he starts that high he races well.
Biff is in the Chase hunt as well and even though he's shown a little consistency lately, he is still a bit of an enigma. So I like the steadier Kenseth here with the better track history.
1.00 unit Jeff Burton (+125) over Joey Logano (@sportsbook.com)
More experience, good track history and the improving RCR stable is my reasons for this pick. Burton has been Top 15 in 8 out of 10 at Atlanta which includes 5 Top 10's and an avg. finish of 11.8
1.00 unit Brian Vickers (-130) over Kasey Kahne (@thegreek)
Almost always have a play on Vickers when they run on the 1.5 milers. Really excels at these tracks. Was 5th here in the spring as well as 5th at sister track Charlotte. Has been strong the last 7 races with 5 Top 10's and an avg. finish of 7th. Kahne is feast or famine and quite capable of running up near the front but hoping thats not the case today
1.00 Kyle Busch (+120) over Mark Martin (@5dimes)
Did not have faith in Kyle at Bristol and was proven wrong, still he needs to race his way into the Chase so will give him a shot here at beating Martin who seems to have his share of problems at Atlanta (has not finished better than 22nd in 4 races)
Props
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (-115) under than 11.5 (@5dimes)
Kenseth has beaten this number in 5 of the last 6 at AMS (finished 12th this spring) and has not finished worst than 14th in the last 6 races this year
1.00 unit Brian Vickers (-115) under 7.5 (@5dimes)
This is right on his avg for the past 7 races and if he keeps his nose clean should be Top 5 tonight
1.00 unit Kyle Busch (+100) under 9.5 (@sportsbook.com)
Just hope he keeps his head on straight and not try to force anything otherwise a Top 10 is probable
Outrights
Gonna play mostly longshots and hope for the best
0.75 unit Jeff Gordon (+725) @5dimes
Jeff is due has not won since Texas in April (which is a lot like Atlanta) but has finished 2nd five times since, ran 2nd here in the spring
0.33 unit Brian Vickers (+1400) @thegreek
0.20 unit Matt Kenseth (+3000) @thegreek
0.20 unit Clint Bowyer (+3000) @sportsbook.com
0.05 unit Casey Mears (+50000) @sportsbook.com
I know he has little chance to win but this line is crazy
Good luck to everyone!
77-65 +2.58 units (Match-Ups)
33-28 +7.47 units (Props)
09-60 +0.31 units (Outrights)
Total: +10.36 units
Have a lot of ground to make up after having my ass handed to me at Bristol.
Really liked Edwards this weekend until he broke his foot and while he did ok in the Nationwide race just too much of a question mark to back him today.
Played these:
Match-Ups
2.00 units Casey Mears (-120) over Elliott Sadler (@thegreek)
A little unsettling having Mears as my top play but can't overlook the improvement the past month by his team as well as RCR as a whole. Mears has finished 13th, 6th and 15th the last 3 races and has an avg. finish of 14.25 the last 4 at AMS.
If he can salvage a Top 20 tonight (and I think he is capable of a lot more than that) that might be all he needs to beat Sadler.
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+120) over Greg Biffle (@5dimes)
One of Kenseth's better tracks. Has 11 Top 10's in 19 starts, and knows he must keep pace to stay in the Chase. Qualified 15th and usually when he starts that high he races well.
Biff is in the Chase hunt as well and even though he's shown a little consistency lately, he is still a bit of an enigma. So I like the steadier Kenseth here with the better track history.
1.00 unit Jeff Burton (+125) over Joey Logano (@sportsbook.com)
More experience, good track history and the improving RCR stable is my reasons for this pick. Burton has been Top 15 in 8 out of 10 at Atlanta which includes 5 Top 10's and an avg. finish of 11.8
1.00 unit Brian Vickers (-130) over Kasey Kahne (@thegreek)
Almost always have a play on Vickers when they run on the 1.5 milers. Really excels at these tracks. Was 5th here in the spring as well as 5th at sister track Charlotte. Has been strong the last 7 races with 5 Top 10's and an avg. finish of 7th. Kahne is feast or famine and quite capable of running up near the front but hoping thats not the case today
1.00 Kyle Busch (+120) over Mark Martin (@5dimes)
Did not have faith in Kyle at Bristol and was proven wrong, still he needs to race his way into the Chase so will give him a shot here at beating Martin who seems to have his share of problems at Atlanta (has not finished better than 22nd in 4 races)
Props
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (-115) under than 11.5 (@5dimes)
Kenseth has beaten this number in 5 of the last 6 at AMS (finished 12th this spring) and has not finished worst than 14th in the last 6 races this year
1.00 unit Brian Vickers (-115) under 7.5 (@5dimes)
This is right on his avg for the past 7 races and if he keeps his nose clean should be Top 5 tonight
1.00 unit Kyle Busch (+100) under 9.5 (@sportsbook.com)
Just hope he keeps his head on straight and not try to force anything otherwise a Top 10 is probable
Outrights
Gonna play mostly longshots and hope for the best
0.75 unit Jeff Gordon (+725) @5dimes
Jeff is due has not won since Texas in April (which is a lot like Atlanta) but has finished 2nd five times since, ran 2nd here in the spring
0.33 unit Brian Vickers (+1400) @thegreek
0.20 unit Matt Kenseth (+3000) @thegreek
0.20 unit Clint Bowyer (+3000) @sportsbook.com
0.05 unit Casey Mears (+50000) @sportsbook.com
I know he has little chance to win but this line is crazy
Good luck to everyone!
